Alert: Currency Risk Ahead

UKRAINE - Forecast 25 Jun 2013 by Vladimir Dubrovskiy and Dmytro Boyarchuk
Executive Summary Ukraine is facing a new challenge: QE3 tapering. The end of the cheap money era will change a lot for the economy.Over the past year, only the abundant international liquidity has propped up the hryvnia and, by extension, economic growth.The outflow of money from emerging market countries presents Ukrainian authorities with a formidable new challenge. This comes on top of the struggle to contain large current account deficit (at 8.1% of GDP by April), falling industrial output (-9.3% y/y in May), and sliding budget revenues (-9.4% y/y in May). Now everything hinges on the ...

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