All about the ToS and reserves

TURKEY - Report 25 Sep 2022 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

CHP leader Kilicdaroglu slammed his fist on the table loudly, roaring that the buck stops there. He was reacting to endless sniping among members of the Table of Six (ToS) and growing doubts among pro-opposition intellectuals and media outlets about the capacity of the ToS to nominate a unified candite and his electability. Thanks to a strong assist from IYIP Chairwoman Aksener, he seems to have regained the momentum. Our second essay is a pictorial explaining where Kilicdaroglu stands vs Erdogan, if he decides the Table of Six ought to nominate him as the rival candidate.

Couple of days after 5 Turkish banks disclosed their participation in the Russian-run Mir payments system, OFAC threatened to sanction banks using it. Two Turkish banks immediately relented, but it was unclear how the three state-owned lenders would respond. We list our scenarios, which at the end repeat the conclusion reached in the previous Weekly Tracker: “No way, Jose,” meaning Russian funds will not suffice to avert a BP squeeze and hence, a currency event prior to 2023 elections.

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