All’s Well that Ends Well

COLOMBIA - Report 10 Jan 2014 by Veronica Navas and Andrés Escobar Arango
Executive Summary Q3 y/y GDP growth at 5.1% outstripped expectations, of 4.4% on average. As the strongest growth rate in more than six quarters, it has significant implications for monetary policy and the presidential elections, after a Q2 downward revision (to 3.9% from 4.2%) that stoked fears that the August farmers’ strikes would damage economic activity. Manufacturing’s two years of hard times is nonetheless a serious drag on growth: had manufacturing grown 4%, instead of -1%, GDP growth would have been 5.7%. Weak export growth is another drag: Q3 exports rose only 1.9%, compared with ...

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