Alleviation of Inflation and Caution by the Central Bank

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 11 Apr 2016 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

The IPCA in March grew by 0.43%, bringing the figure over the preceding 12 months to 9.39%, the lowest since June last year. The deceleration was led by regulated prices, but was helped by less adjustment pressures in service prices. The country seems to have entered a period of declining inflation, but the index will still close the year above the top of the target interval, prompting the Central Bank to be cautious about signaling an easing cycle, even in a scenario of a negative GDP gap and rising unemployment.

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