​Amendments to the Electoral Bill: More gerrymandering, but uncertain consequences

TURKEY - In Brief 16 Mar 2022 by Atilla Yesilada

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I had given up on AKP-MHP agreeing on amendments to the Electoral Bill (EB), and had opined that as described by the press, even if it were to be legislated it will have no signaling value for the election date. I was wrong in the first conclusion, but the second stands. As well, I’d underestimated AKP-MHP’s ingenuity in fixing rules when they are losing the game. The amendments to EB contain an article that in theory increases the advantages of Republic Alliance, but only in theory. In summary, for those who get bored of reading long exposes, it is not clear which side will gain from the new bill. As more analysis by Turkish experts accumulate, I’m certain to revisit the EB, but let’s focus on the $64K question: Can AKP-MHP use the bill to increase their seats despite declining (potential) votes? To achieve this result, the draft bill lowers the national hurdle to qualify for the Grand Assembly (GA) for an alliance from 10% to 7%.However, it then legislates another article which eliminates the advantages smaller parties derive from alliance membership by changing the system whereby seats in multi-seat districts are allocated. In technical terms, the next elections will witness proportional representation at the national level, with the D’Hondt System being effective in districts. You can find an overview of the D’Hondt system in the link (link here). Explanation too technical?Focus on the following sentences from the linked source: “Empirical studies based on other, more popular concepts of disproportionality show that the D'Hondt method is one of the least proportional among the proportional representation methods. The D'Hondt slightly favors large parties and coalit...