Politics: AMLO picks the Mexico City Candidate

MEXICO - Report 28 Aug 2017 by Guillermo Valdes and Esteban Manteca

Late last Thursday evening a key piece of the 2018 electoral puzzle fell into place as Morena leaders leaked the name of the party’s nominee to be the next mayor of Mexico City. The choice of Claudia Sheinbaum, a respected scientist and the head of government in the capital’s Tlalpan borough did not come as much of a surprise given that her profile is more closely aligned with that of party leader Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) than those of the three men whom she was competing against for the candidacy; nor is her record marred by their sorts of brushes with scandal. But the party that is currently the hands-on favorite to end the PRD’s two-decade long monopoly on power in the capital, and paints itself not only as Mexico’s only hope for ending government corruption, but also as the country’s greatest adversary of undemocratic political practices, employed an extremely opaque polling exercise to choose its nominee. There may yet be serious blowback from that exercise as it may ultimately undercut enthusiasm for the campaign among some sectors of Morena’s base. It may also prompt her strongest primary challenger, Ricardo Monreal, to defect following several months in which he has bucked AMLO’s ban on relations with the PRD and made overtures to Mayor Miguel Ángel Mancera and other PRD politicians.

In its three years of existence, Morena has quickly begun to supplant the PRD as the dominant political force in the city and currently looks poised for an easy victory next July as the incumbent party continues to implode. But a few more pieces of the puzzle will have to fall into place before we have a clearer picture of the 2018 outlook. The PRI did manage to pull off some upset victories in the 2015 borough elections, but its prospects do not look anywhere as good next year, and the party is unlikely to squander resources it is more likely to assign to the presidential contest.

The only potential obstacle in the path of a Morena victory would appear to be a possible alliance between the PRD and the PAN, which continues to govern two boroughs in the capital.

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