AMLO’s Presidencialismo redux

MEXICO - Report 08 Apr 2019 by Guillermo Valdes, Alejandro Hope Pinsón and Francisco González

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s continues to make progress in concentrating governing power directly in his hands as he appears intent on reviving the sort of presidencialista system that governed Mexico throughout most of the 20th century. This approach will also entail drawing on legal and meta-legal powers, such as exerting control over other governmental branches and agencies, as well as over the governing party, and state governments. Examples of the latest steps he has taken include his direct appointment just this past week of four out of seven new commissioners on the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) who had already been rejected twice by the Senate for lacking the necessary experience and technical expertise. And a new proposal could help him to further reshape the composition of the Supreme Court in his favor.

At this point there seems little to stand in his way. He and his government remain extremely popular, and opposition parties have either largely imploded (PRD) or remain locked in deep internal crisis at the same time as the percentage of those indicating they intend to vote for the PAN or the PRI in the 2021 midterms has fallen to just above single digits.

Since December there has been a 5pp rise, to 33%, in support of allowing a sitting president to stand for re-election for the first time since 1910, and a 10pp drop in opposition to the idea, although those who are opposed to the idea continue to enjoy a 15pp edge, and the public appears more evenly divided on whether they would vote for AMLO in such an election. In short, the public seems more skeptical when it comes to such concrete proposals than AMLO’s 64% approval rating would suggest.

Although such polling data provides no guarantee that AMLO’s governing project will endure by means of his personal re-election, it does confirm López Obrador’s political strength. However, any attempt at his re-election will subject the country to a profound political conflict.

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