Politics: AMLO sets the rules with a nudge from Ebrard, but risks to Morena unity remain
After Marcelo Ebrard forced his hand the evening of June 6 by announcing he was resigning as minister of foreign affairs to devote all his efforts to campaigning for the Morena presidential nomination, President López Obrador set clearer rules for the campaign to choose his probable successor. Concerned that Ebrard, in particular, might bolt the party unless there was at least some semblance of a level playing field, all contenders were required to resign their public posts, agree to a series of rules including abstaining from attacking one another, and promise in advance to accept the results of the final opinion polls that ostensibly will determine the presidential candidacy. As a further inducement to keep all the losing candidates within the 4T camp rather than having them seek a nomination from other parties, all of them have been promised a major post in the next cabinet or Congress.
But many of the rules are ill defined, riddled with loopholes that not only afford AMLO greater leeway in trying to tilt the scales but room to work around them. All the candidates have agreed to conduct very austere campaigns, but no oversight mechanisms have been adopted with regard to how much money is being spent or from what sources the funding will be drawn. They are prohibited from personally criticizing one another but we can expect plenty of negative campaigning by their minions, especially on social media. Presumably, the candidate will be defined by the result of a public opinion survey, but the exact phrase the opinion survey will pose to the public or whether there will be more questions with specific weights on the final result is unclear.
The race at this point is clearly between Ebrard and Claudia Sheinbaum, AMLO’s presumed favorite, with both of them polling well. There remains a latent threat of Ebrard's seeking another presidential nomination if he fails to win that of Morena, but this appears much less likely at this point. What is less clear is just how much these new rules might legitimize the nomination process among the electorate.
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