An encouraging print in a long journey

TURKEY - Report 04 Dec 2023 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices increased by 3.3%, m/m, in November, lower than the market consensus of around 3.5%-3.8.%. Twelve-month CPI-inflation nevertheless edged up to 62%, or to its highest level since the beginning of the year, up from 61.4% a month ago. Monthly PPI inflation was 2.8%, with the 12-month rate also rising to 42.6%, from 39.4% a month earlier. The PPI-CPI inflation gap remained in negative territory, but declined somewhat (Graph 1; Table 1).

In terms of contributions to CPI inflation, the driver of the increase in 12-month CPI inflation was the housing prices, as expected, on the back of increased usage of natural gas above the free, 25 m3 consumption limit, which alone added 1.4 pps to monthly CPI inflation this November, vs. 0.3 pps in November 2022. This was mainly tempered by a lower contribution in food inflation this November vs. last (Graph 2).

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