Politics: An opposition trying to find its footing

MEXICO - Report 13 Aug 2018 by Guillermo Valdes and Esteban Manteca

Opposition parties will be at a great disadvantage when the new Congress convenes September 1. With a greatly diminished presence in federal and state congresses, the majority of their governors soon to be shackled by state legislatures dominated by Morena and other local opposition parties, and their public funding reduced to a small fraction of their customary budgets, they must first get past the inevitable infighting that follows such an electoral defeat even before embarking on the arduous task of rebranding themselves in an entirely new political context. Nevertheless, each of them have been entrusted by part of the 47% of the electorate that did not cast their ballots for López Obrador and his allies to act as a counterweight to the incoming administrations at the federal and local levels.

The PAN appears to be in the strongest position to weather this storm; it was the opposition party to lose the fewest votes, leaving it commanding the strongest opposition caucus in Congress. Perhaps most importantly, its economically liberal agenda positions it to offer a clear ideological alternative to Morena, unlike the center-left PRD or centrist PRI. Moreover, the party leadership around former presidential candidate Ricardo Anaya appears to have the inside track in the upcoming party leadership contest over a fractured but embittered internal opposition.

In contrast, the incumbent PRI’s congressional presence has been decimated. It lost every gubernatorial contest this year, a huge percentage of PRI voters cast their ballots for AMLO, and many may well decide to take the next step and affiliate with the next governing party. The big question is just who might take control of a PRI reduced to the smallest share of elected officials in the party’s almost 90 years of existence. As for the PRD, it has been relegated to minor party status, and having lost its ideological profile by becoming a lesser PAN ally, it will have to redefine itself at a time when much of its membership will also be drawn toward a more ideologically familiar Morena.

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