An Unexpected Second Electoral Round

ECUADOR - In Brief 08 Feb 2021 by Magdalena Barreiro
When 97.5% of the votes have been counted, Andres Arauz maintains an undisputable first place on Sunday's presidential elections with close to 32% of the votes. On the other hand, the second place is still disputed between Yaku Perez (19.8%) and Guillermo Lasso (19.6%). This difference has been fluctuating overnight, however, at this point the trend seems to be more stable. Xavier Hervas from Izquierda Democratica finished at fourth place with close to 16% of votes.Since August last year until the end of 2020, pollsters --depending on its affiliation --placed either Arauz or Lasso at the first place. By January 28th, the last date of public information on polls, Arauz showed an average of 8% over Guillermo Lasso, while Yaku Perez was at third place with around 15%. The different outcome could be explained by the fact that polls were conducted mainly in the urban areas while Perez was strong in many rural areas especially in the Andean Region.This outcome evidences a strong polarization as over 50% of the population has clearly rejected movements that are from center to right. The frustration with the deterioration of conditions during 2020 which was clearly exploited by leftist leaders to blame president Moreno, and by Correistas in particular, who referred to Moreno as a traitor, are behind this result. It is also true that 68% of the population has rejected Correistas, but it does not mean we cannot end with Arauz as winner of the second round, albeit at this point, it looks Yaku Perez will be the next president.

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