An Unpleasant Regression

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 26 Aug 2024 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

We have long warned about economic activity exceeding its potential, as evident when we look at the unemployment rate, which is at its lowest level in nearly ten years. Here, we complement this by analyzing the behavior of capacity utilization (NUCI), suggesting that pressure on production also arises from capacity utilization above its potential. Manufacturing output growth in 2024, after years of low investment, should continue to put pressure on the output gap.

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