An upward 2021-2022 GDP revision by Rosstat

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 02 Jan 2024 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov
At the very end of 2023, Rosstat announced it had revised some historical data, such as GDP accounts for 2021 and 2022. Having slightly reappraised the nominal accounts, the agency also changed growth numbers. The new data suggest that in 2021, the Russian GDP grew by 5.9% (5.6% previously), and in 2022, the economy contracted by a mere 1.2% (instead of the previously reported 2.1% contraction). In particular, Rosstat significantly revised the investment growth number in 2022 to 6.7% growth - instead of the 3.3% reported previously. Household consumption contracted by 1.1% in 2022 (1.4% previously). Rosstat also revised quarterly data, and the overall quarterly trends look somewhat different now. It will require some more time to assess the impact of these revisions on the 2024 (and beyond) economic growth forecast. Assuming that in 2023, Russia’s economic growth could have reached 3.2%, then in the past twelve years (starting from 2022), the economy grew by a mere 17.7% with an average annual GDP growth of about 1.4%.

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