Another Poor Inflation Print

TURKEY - Report 04 Nov 2013 by Murat Ucer
At 1.8%, October CPI-inflation came in markedly higher than consensus (1.3%) as well as our more bearish forecast (1.5%), but thanks to last year’s high base, the 12-month rate nevertheless declined to 7.7%, from 7.9% a month earlier. Yet, both PPI and core inflation (I-index) rose, the latter much more than envisaged to 7.5%, from 7% in September. Service inflation seems to show no obvious sign of easing, either, judging from a number of key subcategories (Table 1; Graphs 1-4). This is obviously not a good print, which contains a host of negative factors in it, like exchange rate effects, ...

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