Anything may happen, any minute

TURKEY - Report 24 Oct 2021 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

An unexpectedly deep rate cut by the CBRT and a weekend outburst of expelling 10 ambassadors from friendly nations, compels us to revisit Erdogan’s decision-making capacity, once again. We offer visual evidence of his declining cognitive powers, concluding that his policy actions may not be reflective of any rational motivation, no matter how narrowly one defines the concept.

This tentative view of ours adds another thick layer on top of the already extreme uncertainty under which we try to make forecasts. The diagnosis also raises the specter of nasty surprises, if leading political actors in Turkey decide he is no longer able to carry out his official duties.

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