Apple’s China Problem: Is luxury consumption declining?

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 14 Jan 2019 by Andrew Collier

The decline in Apple earnings has gotten mixed reports about what it means for consumption in China in general. We use a novel data set to look at consumption trends in China. Our conclusion is that consumption is for the most part concentrated in a small portion of wealthy citizens. Their purchasing decisions have a significant impact on total consumption. The so-called “middle class” is smaller, and thus less of a support for consumption than is widely assumed. If the wealthy can preserve savings, along with access to bank loans and other forms of capital, consumption will be less affected by declining GDP than in other areas of the economy.

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