Are these the last days of Mehmet Simsek in the administration?

TURKEY - In Brief 17 May 2016 by Atilla Yesilada

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Luck has it that I must leave town on a family matter between Wednesday and Sunday, leaving you without updates until early Monday hours regarding developments in AKP. I’m hoping to fire out a final update early Wednesday to report on the outcome of the first round of voting for the lifting of the immunities of the parliamentarians under indictment or already convicted of crimes. Today I want to reply to a reader question on Mehmet Simsek’s possible departure. This is the question: “Today Hurriyet’s columnist Abdulkadir Selvi wrote that Mr. Albayrak is expected to replace Mr. Simsek as the new FM. Apparently, rumors are growing as you mention in your last weekly and I think this could be extremely relevant for Turkish assets in near term. Do you have more detail on this matter? What probability do you assign to this outcome?” In addition to well-connected Mr. Selvi, Financial Times, too, headlined an article claiming that Simsek as well as Finance Minister Mr. Naci Akbal were left hanging, based on conversations with two “AKP insiders”. Despite the proliferation of news items regarding the replacement of Mr. Simsek with his son-in-law Mr. Berat Albayrak, it is possible that president Erdogan is yet to make his final decision. In the past, former economy czar Babacan was rescued from dismissal by market revolts. This time, it might be a case of Erdogan’s advisors watching markets to inform him whether Simsek could be safely let go. That means we will not know until the very announcement of the new Cabinet whether he is in or not. But I agree with the news flow in the general sense that Erdogan would like to replace him, getting rid of the last vestige of “pro-IMF” and ”...