Armenia seems to be helping Russia evade sanctions

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 01 Sep 2022 by Alex Teddy
Russia has tried to get around sanctions through parallel imports. Armenia has recorded a 50% YoY increase in trade with Russia in Q1 and Q2 2022. Russia has always been by far its biggest trade partner. In that same time Armenian manufacturing has grown only 2.7%. It is suspected by Western diplomats that Armenian imports certain goods from the West and sells them on to Russia at a markup. Re-export is illegal to evade sanctions. Russia no longer publishes customs data. The AMD has risen and therefore exporting to the EU is more dfficult. Russians have gone to Armenia to open bank accounts and receive cards that will work internationally.  In Q1 and Q2 2022 Armenia's heavy metal exports rose 4%, processed foods 36% whereas land, water and air vehicles rose 230% YoY! It is suspected that Turkey might also be re-exporting sanctioned goods to Russia. Armenia is extremely reliant on Russia. It is the most pro-Russian former Soviet country besides Belarus. Were it not for Russia then Armenia would have been crushed by Azerbaijan long ago.  Armenia has abstained in votes in the UN on the Ukraine War. It is buying Russian gas in RUB and will subsidize Black Sea shipping from Georgia to facilitate trade with Russia. Armenia is landlocked. EU and the US are unhappy with Armenia but so far are saying little. Prime Minister Pashinyan came to office in 2018 hoping to make this country less dependent on Russia. His opponents say he is insufficiently pro-Russian. If the West sanctions Armenian and Pashinyan fall then a more pro-Russian PM will probably replace him. 

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