Armenia: Yerevan City Council elections point to rising Armenia risk premium amid already challenging NK backdrop

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA - In Brief 19 Sep 2023 by Ivan Tchakarov
The Sep 17th Citi Council elections signify a considerable loss for the ruling Civil Contract Party. The elections for the Yerevan City Council are in essence a competition for choosing the mayor of Yerevan for the next 5 years. The new 65-seat Council is due to take office on October 10 and mayoral elections are to be held within 2 weeks after receiving mandates. If one of the political forces receives more than 50 percent of the mandates, it has the right to appoint a mayor. If this is not the case, the mayor is elected in an open vote by City Council members. The ruling Civil Contract Party, led by Prime Minister Nicol Pashinyan, won a Pyrrhic victory getting 33 percent of the vote vs the overwhelming 81 percent received during the previous elections five years ago (Table 1). Moreover, the record-low turnaround of 28.5 percent is an indication of the broader political malaise that has overcome the society at large. What must be particularly unpleasant for the Civil Contract is that three of the remaining four passing parties, i.e., National Progress, Mother Armenia and Public Voice, have publicly announced that they would not form a City Council coalition with Nicol’s party. Algebraically, this would mean that a possible coalition between these three would give them a 33-seat majority to elect a mayor of their own choosing, thus formally delivering a defeat for the Civil Contract. Table 1 Ruling Civil Contract Party wins a Pyrrhic victory in Yerevan mayoral race Source: Armenia Election Commission, Author's calculations. There is still a path to mayoral victory for Civil Contract. The ruling party may find a way to entice at least vote from the three parties alluded...

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