​ATTENTION: Turkey could be heading to a presidential referendum

TURKEY - In Brief 12 Oct 2016 by Atilla Yesilada

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On Tuesday, the leader of the nationalist opposition party (MHP) Mr. Bahceli bashed President Erdogan for overstepping his authority, a case which became extremely acute after the aborted coup attempt. He invited him to step back, or instruct AKP to amend the constitution to transition Turkey to a presidential system. Today, grasping the opportunity, PM Yildirim thanked Bahceli for his support, stating that a new constitution including a strong presidency article will at once be submitted to the parliament. He added that even if the new constitution garners the 367 vote majority to be ratified on the floor, the strong presidency will be submitted to a referendum to receive the approval of the nation. While there is an expert consensus that thanks to his increased approval rating Erdogan would easily secure the referendum, few available polls reject this view. A prolonged campaign on presidency could be prone to sabotage by Gulenists, or other enemies of Turkey, as well as further increasing economic uncertainty. All this being said, I am still not certain Bahceli intends to support a presidential amendment. This is really strange. In the link you would find the full text of Mr. Bahceli’s speech to his caucus (in Turkish) most of which is devoted to criticizing AKP’s post-coup behavior. He clearly states that he prefers a parliamentary to a presidential system. He mentions a referendum vote on the general floor only as the least bad alternative, and suggests that rather than supporting it, he would allow his deputies to vote according to their conscience. I have not personally polled the MHP caucus, but I’m not sure whether there would be 17 votes (to reach the 330 vote...