Avdiivka offensive amid depleted Russian artillery
Despite no significant territorial gains being reported, the intensity of the fighting escalated along all fronts throughout September and October. Ukrainian forces continued their push south toward Tokmak, and have been gradually encircling the ruins of Bakhmut. However, since the beginning of October, attention has shifted to Russian efforts to encircle Avdiivka, a town near occupied Donetsk. Russia deployed three combined armies to the area, a concentration of forces unprecedented since the war's 2014 onset. The offensive near Avdiivka appears to be primarily for propaganda purposes, and possibly to compel Ukrainian forces to redirect resources away from the strategically important Tokmak front. Even if successful, this offensive would not significantly alter the overall battlefield dynamics. Despite several weeks of intense “meat and armor” assaults, Russian forces have failed to achieve significant results, losing hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles in the process.
A pivotal shift in the war has been observed, with the dramatic depletion of Russian artillery capabilities. OSINT reports indicate that in October, for the first time since the war began, Russia made fewer artillery shots per day than Ukrainian forces, with 7,000 shots compared to Ukraine's 9,000. Reports of eliminated Russian artillery units have surged. This development suggests that Russia's ability to continue its offensive has been dramatically undermined, despite ongoing mobilization efforts. However, the depletion of Russian artillery does not necessarily mean Ukrainian forces can capitalize on this advantage, as their artillery supplies heavily depend upon Western partners, and political and geopolitical developments pose risks to sustained Western support for Ukraine.
From October 3rd, the NBU announced a shift from a fixed exchange rate regime, established at the war's outset, to a controlled fluctuation FX market regime. The first week of this new regime was costly, with a $1.2 billion intervention over just three days, but the market stabilized after initial nervousness subsided.
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