Avoiding the Bermuda Triangle
The three legs of the governability triangle that the new government seems to be working on most intensely are: 1) politics 2) the economy, and 3) the so-called “Total Peace,” plus security force reform. On the political front, there is clear progress, with President Gustavo Petro stating that he doesn’t want to persecute political enemies. The H2 2022 legislative agenda prioritizes tax reform, a ban on fracking and glyphosate, land reform and the transformation of the police and Armed Forces.
The second leg is the economy. Its centerpiece will be a tax reform expected to ramp up collection from 25 trillion COP in 2023 to 50 trillion at the end of Petro’s term, per the draft proposal. This should be added to a 2021 tax reform expected to collect the equivalent of 1% of GDP. If these aspirations materialize, the next four years could be recalled as “the years we did nothing but pay taxes.” Finance Minister José Antonio Ocampo says this should be interpreted as a ticket to a Denmark-like tax and expenditure system. Let’s hope that the landing in Copenhagen is not a belly flop.
The last leg is transformation of the security agencies, and negotiation of a so-called Total Peace. Petro proposes reforming the police, the Armed Forces and the anti-riot police ESMAD, and turning them into security agencies for a country of angels, as the French writer Victor Hugo might say (he referred to the 1863 Colombian Constitution as “a constitution for angels.”) Simultaneously -- and this is what seems to us quite risky – Petro would make peace with the ELN and 2016 Peace Agreement dissidents, and seek to pardon BACRIM, drug traffickers and all kinds of organized criminals, who are driven by purely by greed. That could be an explosive cocktail. The United States would want to understand its meaning for the fight against drug trafficking, and the tons of cocaine these groups ship there each year. And what would be the effect on Colombia’s relationship with Venezuela, China, Russia, Cuba and Iran? Weakened Armed Forces is not exactly what you need if your neighbor is buying weapons and receiving help from the enemies of democracy and freedom. This last leg of the "governability triangle" could eventually contaminate the other two. If it doesn’t work, Colombia could instead be heading to the Bermuda Triangle, where peace, the economy, politics and international relations could evaporate into thin air.
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