Bahamas calls election while Jamaica survives Melissa with financial credibility intact
The Bahamas
Prime Minister Philip “Brave” Davis has announced that Parliament will be dissolved on Wednesday, April 8 with writs of election to be issued the following day for a May 12 election. In his statement, the Prime Minister said: “As we move through this election season, I ask every Bahamian to remember one simple truth: wherever we may fall politically, we all love this country. Long after the campaign is over, we will still be one people, sharing one home, with one future to build together. I encourage every eligible Bahamian to take part in this process with seriousness, respect and faith in our democracy.” This is an encouraging sign of political maturity.
Jamaica
The Government of Jamaica (GOJ) tabled its budget estimates on February 12 in advance of the main budget debate. For the first time ever, the tax package measures were also tabled along with the budget before the actual debate, which began on March 10 and concluded on March 24, allowing for a fulsome discussion of the budget and tax measures before their finalization.
The fiscal policy paper outlined the key assumptions regarding GDP growth, inflation, and the current account balance. The 2026/2027 budget projects a real GDP contraction of 0.5 percent, inflation of 5.1 percent, and a sharply increased current account deficit to 6.8 percent over the rough balance in 2025/2026, and compared to a 3% surplus in 2024/2025. However, the initial year fiscal year-end projection (for the end of March just past) in the budget for net international reserves (NIR) of US$6.079 billion looks likely to be substantially overshot as reserves were over US$6.8 billion at the end of February. The fiscal year projection one year later, for the end of 2026/2027, has reserves falling to just US$5.157 billion, which would have looked like an unreasonably sharp fall for a country previously described by the Bank of Jamaica Governor “as awash in US dollars”, as Jamaica appeared to be until recently. Over the past few months, the Bank of Jamaica has been buying dollars to keep the Jamaican dollar from appreciating more, with reserves continuing to rise.
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