Bahceli’s casus belli to Erdogan

TURKEY - In Brief 13 Jun 2024 by Atilla Yesilada

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In a week widely anticipated to be headlined by the second Erdogan - Ozgur Ozel (CHP chair) summit, MHP leader Devlet Bahceli stole the limelight by issuing an unprecedently strong casus belli to Erdogan. The Erdogan-Ozel meeting went better than I anticipated, with leaders resolving to continue and deepen dialogue, which is one of the reasons for Bahceli’s outburst, but there are others, as well. There is no imminent threat of a break up in AKP-MHP partnership, but Erdogan’s history with former partners like Fethullah Gulen suggests this possibility can’t be dismissed easily. Neither is there any guarantee that “normalization” driven by Erdogan-Ozel will produce any concrete results. July will be the hottest month in recent political history, after which the future will gain some clarity. Before I move on, I want to highlight that the a.m. developments modestly increase the odds of our bad-case political scenario, namely early elections in second half of 2025, which would mean the derailment of Simsek-led Economic Stabilization Program (ESP) soon. Exactly 24 hours after Erdogan-Ozel summit, Bahceli posted a ultimatum to Erdogan in one of his party’s X (formerly Twitter) accounts. Dripping with sarcasm and irony, the letter urged Erdogan to form a coalition with CHP and other members of the former Table of Six opposition grouping. Then, he urged Erdogan to solve three problems undermining AKP-MHP cooperation, in the tone of an ultimatum: End normalization,Finish the trial of former MHP prince Mr Sinan Ates who was assassinated in a drive-by shooting,Silence anti-MHP voices in AKP. Yet, in a strange display of passive-aggressive disorder, Bahceli didn’t suggest retaliat...