BAHRAIN: Protests after Shia executions unlikely to spark change

GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 30 Jul 2019 by Justin Alexander

---

In the last few days Bahrain has seen the most extensive protests in two years following the executions of three men on saturday, including two young Shia. The anger is likely to lead to further clashes between protestors and police but there are currently no indications of an escalation towards the kind of mass protests seen in 2011, although there is small chance this could change given heightened regional tensions. The incident further dents Bahrain's international reputation but is unlikely to result in any material changes in its key bilateral relationships, such as with the US and UK (particularly under its new PM, Boris Johnson). The ongoing economic damage to key sectors, such as financial and business services, as a result of the government's hardline approach to the disenfanchished Shia majority and periodic protests is already largely priced in to investor considerations.Ali al-Arab and Ahmed al-Malali were arrested in February 2017 and later convicted of membership in a terrorist cell and the killing of security officers. The case against them was widely criticised by groups such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International for being rooted in confessions extracted under torture, and for poor legal representation and other judicial shortcomings in a mass trial of 58 people. These concerns were echoed in May by a panel of experts formed by the UN Human Rights Council which called for a retrial. However, Bahrain pressed ahead with the executions which were the first since the executions of three men in January 2017, similar grounds and with similar allegations of torture and judicial irregularities, which in turn had been the first in over 20 years. Bahrai...