Balance of payments: no surprise in 11M24 amid the economy’s overheating

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 12 Dec 2024 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The CBR published its flash estimate of the 11M24 balance of payments, and no major surprise was on the table. In 11M24, the current account surplus reached $57.4 bln as the trade balance widened to $118.6 bln. Exports accounted for $386.0 bln, while imports climbed to $267.5. In November alone, exports accounted for $32.2 bln, i.e., lower than in previous months on average but well in line with our 2024 yearly outlook (we expected exports to reach $418 bln this year). This year’s imports will likely exceed our forecast by several billion USD as domestic remains overheated. Therefore, the current account surplus might appear slightly narrower than our forecast (about $68 bln). However, the recent devaluation of the ruble may limit December imports and monthly imports in 1Q25. So far, the balance of payments remains stable. Meanwhile, Rosstat recently mentioned that in the seven days ending on December 9, inflation w-o-w accelerated to 0.48%. The MTD inflation reached 0.62%, and the YTD tally keeps 'successfully' climbing toward the 10% year-end mark, as it already reached 8.76% on December 9. It may even exceed the 10% level as government spending is to increase more in the next couple of weeks.