Bank share prices imply slower long-term growth

CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 18 Oct 2023 by Michael Pettis

Special points to highlight in this report:

* We continue to see the expected partial recovery in the Chinese economy for the second half of 2023, thanks to expansionary policies by Beijing and a surge in debt. For now, I expect this partial recovery to continue through the end of 2023 and into the beginning of 2023.

* What is driving this recovery, however, is the same set of policies that created China’s economic malaise in the first place. It can only continue as long as Beijing is able and willing to allow rapid growth in debt and an expansion of the part of the economy that does not operate under hard budget constraints (i.e., the public sector and credit-subsidized portions of the private sector).

* Bank share prices suggest, as they have for the past decade, that Chinese growth prospects continue to contract.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This report is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This report is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this report or its contents.