Beijing has its back to the wall

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 03 Sep 2018 by Andrew Collier

Visiting Beijing nowadays is like marching into a former war zone where the mines have not been removed. It’s not clear how many there are or where they are located but everyone is fearful they are out there somewhere. Financial regulators, foreign diplomats, corporates and private citizens are struggling with significant unknowns, starting foremost with the trade war, but also including slowing economic growth, disparate views on debt, accuracy of basic statistics, and the even the stability of the leadership. As a result, some of my Chinese friends are thinking of abandoning Beijing, in part to avoid a potential real estate crash. Surprisingly, Hong Kong is now considered politically “unsafe” and they would rather shift their funds further abroad. It’s not an easy time in Beijing – although pollution has dropped markedly and some days there are even blue skies.

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