Belarus’s future outlook

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 17 Sep 2020 by Alex Teddy and Alexei Panin

On August 9 a presidential election was held in Belarus. The Electoral Commission declared that President Lukashenka had won his sixth consecutive election with 80% of the vote. The president has been in office since 1994. The 66-year-old has no intention of resigning.

Although Lukashenka is under pressure he has survived. On September 14 he went to Sochi, Russia to meet with Putin. Lukashenka’s body language made it plain that he was a supplicant. Moscow confirmed that it was offering a USD 1.5 billion loan to Belarus. This is desperately needed because of far-above-average cash withdrawals since August 9, and the fact that EU sanctions will begin to bite. The Sochi Summit was probably less important than the media fanfare would have us believe. Clearly, Putin took the decision a couple of weeks ago to support Lukashenka, at least for the moment.

This report discusses the current political situation in Belarus and possible outcomes for Lukashenka and the country.

Now read on...

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