Belling the cat (now what?)

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 15 Jul 2016 by Romeo Bernardo

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Barely two weeks into office, the administration of Rodrigo Duterte was handed a legal victory that it did not ask for and (probably) does not need. The award, issued by the UN-backed Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, is seen by analysts as a sweeping win for the Philippines against China regarding the two countries’ claims in the West Philippine Sea / South China Sea. In the face of so much attention from the international press and the jubilation that broke out in social media, many found the President’s equanimity, a rarity considering his campaign persona, upsetting. It is no secret that the President favors bilateral talks with China – he said so during the campaign and has remained firm in this position. This contrasts with the Aquino administration’s stance not to pursue direct negotiations with China and under which Philippine diplomatic relations with China descended into name calling. That changed after the election. Among the first envoys that the newly-elected president met, a week after he was elected, was the Chinese ambassador and all the signals thereafter, including reported easing in policing fishermen in disputed waters, left little doubt that the stage has been set for greater engagement with China in the next 6 years. The arbitral award, coming at this time, is a complication. While official channels of communication may have been repaired, both sides realize that any agreement on anything would henceforth have to be seen through the lens of the tribunal’s ruling – notwithstanding China’s vehement refusal to recognize the arbitration proceedings and outcome. For President Duterte, this means that notwithstanding his desire to quickly hel...