Benign May Print Should Help the MPC

TURKEY - Report 03 Jun 2016 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by 0.6% in May, m/m, same as last year, which left the 12-month rate unchanged at 6.6%. Food prices dropped in May for seasonal reasons, but less so than in May last year, taking the 12-month food inflation up to 2.5%, from 1.4% in April (Table 1; Graphs 1-2). Key disinflationary influences came from clothing and transportation categories this time, while inflation in some key service categories like hospitality continued to ease as well on the back of lower food prices and ongoing distress in the sector (Graph 3). These, combined with lira’s reversal in recent months and last year’s elevated base, reduced the 12-month core inflation (I-index) visibly to 8.8% in May, down from 9.4% in April.

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