Better than expected, but still sticky

TURKEY - Report 03 May 2023 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 2.4%, m/m, in April, with the 12-month rate easing further to 43.7%, y/y, down from 50.5% in March – and a peak of 85.5% last October -- as the base effect has continued through April. Our even larger miss (3.3%) stemmed from a sharper drop in energy prices as well as, to a lesser extent, lower food and textile inflation than we had factored into our forecast. The increase in domestic producer prices was modest, at 0.8%, m/m, which took the 12-month rate markedly lower to 52.1%, from 62.5% a month earlier, with the PPI-CPI gap thus shrinking further to some 8.4 percentage points (Graph 1; Table 1).

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