Better than expected, but still sticky

TURKEY - Report 03 Mar 2023 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by 3.15%, m/m, in February, lower than the market consensus of around 3.5%. Our forecast, at around 4.5%, was even higher, which was largely based on our assumption of quicker price increases in service categories. As a result, 12-month CPI rate eased further to 55.2%, y/y, thanks to base effects (February 2022: 4.8%), from 57.7%, y/y, in January or its peak of 85.5%, y/y, in October. Domestic-PPI inflation was relatively subdued, at 1.6%, with the 12-month rate declining more visibly to 76.6%, from 86.5% in January. The PPI-CPI inflation gap dropped further to some 21.4 percentage points (pps) from almost 29 pps in January, which is almost a two-year low (Graph 1; Table 1).

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