Between Popularity and Need

ECUADOR - Forecast 25 Nov 2014 by Magdalena Barreiro
Executive SummaryWe’ve lowered our 2014 economic growth projections, to 3.8%-4% from 4.5%, given the post-August plunge in oil prices. We see the deficit at 5.8% of GDP, and the current account deficit remaining low, at 0.4% of GDP, driven by this year’s trade deficit shrinkage. This latter is courtesy of the excellent performance of non-oil exports, and a fall in non-oil imports that partly compensated for the shrinkage of the oil sector surplus.The Ministry of Finance proposed a $36.32 billion 2015 budget to Congress. It calls for nearly $15.5 billion in tax revenue, and $3.14 billion in ...

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