Beware of Black Swans in Syria and military

TURKEY - In Brief 28 Feb 2017 by Atilla Yesilada
This is a heads-up about potentially shocking news which might upset Turkey’s delicate relations with the White House abroad and the fragile equilibrium between AKP and the military at home. I predict that Trump’s new Syria plan will not enable Turkey to uproot Syrian Kurds from the Turkish border. At home, the tensions between the Chiefs of Staff and AKP could lead to sanctions on publicly listed company Hurriyet Daily, as well as raising new questions about press freedom. According to press reports, U.S. military chiefs presented a new plan for anti-DAESH action to Trump, the details of which remain secret. Trump will make the final decision, but I believe having little experience in military matters, he will defer to the choices of his generals in the subject of Syria. The focus in Syria is how to capture the DAESH capital city of Raqqa. Currently there are two options. The first is to augment the current alliance of Syrian Kurds (PYD-YPG, allied with PKK) and Arab tribes with American hardware and Special Forces. The second option entails using Turkish forces and their Arab allies. The options are mutually exclusive, because Turkey and Syrian Kurds can’t tolerate each other. It appears that Ankara received intel suggesting Pentagon might recommend to Trump going with the Kurdish option, because it upped its offer to join the Raqqa campaign with 4K infantry. Nevertheless, reports about shipments of armed vehicles to YPG and American special forces fortifying Kurdish-occupied mixed population city of Manbij suggest that Pentagon has already made up its mind to work with Kurds and might be preparing to stop Turkish military from playing the spoiler. If I’m right, the ...

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