Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 07 Sep 2023 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Aug 25 NBK: The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank has decided to lower the base rate by 25 bps to 16.5% with a corridor of plus or minus 1 pp NBK: The Bank has raised the forecast of the country's economic growth for 2024-2025 to 4-5% per year (vs 3.5-4.5% earlier). KMG: The Company and AD Ports Group (UAE) plan to jointly build tankers for oil transportation in the Caspian Sea and beyond. Besides that, Caspian Integrated Maritime Solutions Ltd (CIMS), a JV of these two entities, plans to increase its fleet from 4 to 7 tankers this year. UK: The Service for Combating Major Financial Fraud in the UK has completed a ten-year investigation into the Kazakh mining company Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation. Aug 29 Bereke bank: The former Kazakh "daughter" of Russian Sberbank resumed operation with the Mastercard payment system. Economy Ministry: The Government of Kazakhstan has budgeted for 2024-2026 the price of oil at $80 per bbl. In 2024, the government expects GDP to grow by 5.3%. The authorities expect that in the next five years, annual growth could average 5.8%. The estimated exchange rate in the baseline scenario is KZT/USD 460. Inflation is set at 6-8% in 2024, and 5.5-7.5% in 2025, followed by a decrease to 5% in 2026-2028. The nominal GDP will grow from KZT 135 trln in 2024 to KZT218.5 trln in 2028. Republican budget revenues in 2024 are expected to reach KZT16.1 trln, or 11.9% of GDP, in 2026 - KZT18.4 trln, or 10.7% of GDP. The government plans a targeted transfer from the National Fund to account for KZT 1.6 trln in 2024 to finance socially significant and strategically important infrastructure projects. Republican budget expenditures are projected to ...