​Black Swans flocking to Turkey

TURKEY - In Brief 01 Nov 2016 by Atilla Yesilada

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Turkish markets tanked today, as news agencies headlined mobilization of armored forces at the Iraqi border. This is not the only risk bugging the domestic investor. It is as if one can hear the flapping of wings by a flock of Black Swans. Turkey is not for the faint hearted. It is not easy to predict what might happen to upset the markets or the economy, but it is in the air. Things will probably get worse. Turkish mobilization at the Iraqi border could be attributed to domestic propaganda for the upcoming presidential referendum (it certainly pleases nationalist MHP), but from the viewpoint of Ankara there are many things to be seriously worried about in the neighbor. Intel suggests Shia paramilitary Hasdi Shabi is moving into Sunni Mosul, raising fears of a slaughter. Military experts now confirm that the Turkish military base in the vicinity, Camp Bashika, is surrounded by the same paramilitary forces.PKK is establishing permanent bases in the Yezidi homeland of Shingal or Sinjar, also in the vicinity, which would give the terror organization a second vantage point to harass Turkey along with Qandil Mountains.Shia paramilitaries are also reported to be only 10 km away from the Sunni Turkmeni town of Tel Afar, where they could commit atrocities. Despite all the jingoistic rhetoric being spewed out by Ankara, I don’t think Turkey will dare enter Iraq, unless it is “provoked” by the actions of Shia actors or PKK. Iraq is no Syria, where ISIS put up little resistance (so far), while other actors largely left Turkey and its allies to their own devises. In Iraq, Turkish Forces are likely to face very stiff resistance from the moment go. Ankara can’t afford to stand idly ...