Blackout 20/4: what’s next?

UKRAINE - In Brief 16 Jan 2026 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities such as Odesa, Kharkiv, and Dnipro are experiencing blackouts, with only short periods when life briefly returns to normal before the next airstrike. All of this is happening against the backdrop of prolonged freezing weather, with temperatures around -10 to -15°C, and another wave of cold expected in the coming weeks. In practice, Kyiv is now living under a 20/4 electricity schedule: 20 hours without power and only 4 hours with electricity each day. This is the maximal outcome Volodymyr Putin has been trying to achieve throughout the war: a blackout in Kyiv during an exceptionally cold winter. It is difficult to imagine what additional damage Russia could still inflict on the energy system, because the complete destruction of the electricity grid is not realistically achievable without direct artillery shelling of the city. Put differently, four hours of electricity per day may represent the maximum effect Russia can reach through its air campaign. This situation might have been truly shocking for Ukrainians in 2022 or even in 2023 but not in 2026. Of course, polling may show some shift in sentiment, but from what I observe, public mood is still far from what the Kremlin would like to see as the result of a 20/4 blackout. This is not normal life, but there are also far more tools available today like generators and power banks that help people get through this difficult period until spring. And there are no signs of Ukrainians preparing to demand surrender or fall into major internal turmoil. So what’s next? Donald Trump and Volodymyr Putin are now watching closely to see whether these blackouts change Ukraine’s position. I would ...