Anticipated spending cuts, municipal election runoff preview and other weekly topics
The highlight in the National Congress is the presentation of the schedule for the regulation of the Tax Reform in the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). This is the last week of campaigning before the municipal election runoff. On Sunday, October 27, 52 cities will choose their mayors. After the election, Congress resumes its activities.
This week's Talking Points:
• Three issues could define the relationship between the Executive and Legislative branches.
Three short-term issues could define the quality of the relationship between the Executive and Legislative branches. Depending on how these issues are addressed, they could directly impact the cost of negotiations involving the government's agenda. The first pending issue is parliamentary fund transfers.
• Party federations fall short of expectations.
The party federations that were created in 2021 made their debut in this year’s municipal elections. This instrument resembles the former proportional coalitions, which were abolished in 2017 but only effectively eliminated in the 2020 election. In this election, the three existing federations (Brasil da Esperança: PT/PCdoB/PV; the PSDB/Cidadania; and the PSOL/Rede) achieved poor results.
• The race for most mayors in the state capitals.
With one week left until the runoff of the municipal elections, a study we conducted shows that the PL, União Brasil (UB), MDB, and PSD will be vying for which party will elect the most mayors in state capitals. The projection was made by taking into account opinion polls, the growth potential of candidates, rejection rates, campaigns, and the evolving electoral scenario.
• Re-election rate in the state capitals is expected at 75%-80%.
Another key feature of this year’s municipal elections, which is likely to be confirmed in the runoff, is the strength of incumbents. In the first round, 10 mayors were re-elected, and In the runoff, there could be six more re-elections.
• Anticipated spending cuts.
Minister of Planning and Budget Simone Tebet (MDB) confirmed that the government is working on a package to review federal budget expenditures. According to the minister, this package will be divided into two phases, with the first part sent to the National Congress later this year.
• Blackout in São Paulo strengthens calls for changes in regulatory agencies.
The recurring power blackout in São Paulo after a storm on Friday, October 11, has sparked a new crisis between the government and the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel). This incident has reignited debates about the empowerment of regulatory agencies and reopened discussions about reforming their independence.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report