Campaign kickoff—Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro’s proposals and other weekly topics
This week's Talking Points:
• Lula and Flávio kick off their campaigns.
On the first day of the official election campaign, President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) adopted different strategies. At a political rally held at Vila Euclides Stadium in the ABC region of São Paulo, Lula used the slogan “Where It All Began” and leaned into nostalgia. Lula also focused on one of the main vulnerabilities of former President Jair Bolsonaro’s (PL) administration: its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, blaming Bolsonaro for the deaths.
The opposition’s leading candidate, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), held his first campaign event at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. He wore the traditional green-and-yellow shirt bearing the phrase "My Party Is Brazil", one of the hallmarks of Bolsonaro movement rallies. He lamented the absence of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and called the president “the deadbeat of hope”, describing the government as profligate, arguing that its spending fuels inflation and indebtedness.
• Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro’s proposals.
The government platforms of President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), the presidential candidates currently leading the polls, present distinct visions of the role of government and of how to address challenges such as sluggish economic growth, public safety, the cost of living, and inequality. The main difference lies in how they propose to tackle these issues.
• The start of the campaign rarely changes electoral trends.
An analysis we conducted, in which we compared polls available before the official start of the presidential campaign with the final first-round results from 1994 to 2022, indicates that shifts in the electoral landscape are the exception rather than the rule. Of the eight elections held during this period, in only two—1994 and 2010—did the candidate leading before the campaign, Lula (PT) and José Serra (PSDB), respectively, fail to win the election.
• Motta and Alcolumbre's support for Lula unblocks the government agenda.
Speaker of the House Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB) and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) have chosen to align themselves with President Lula (PT) in his bid for a fourth term. Their decisions are driven by local electoral considerations but have consequences at the national level. This scenario is already having an impact on legislative activity. Last week—the first of the so-called "concentrated legislative sessions" held during the election period—the government benefited from the decisive cooperation of the leaders of both chambers to approve an important proposal that bundled together several previously stalled priorities.
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