Variables that may impact the election and other weekly topics
This is the last week of campaigning. The campaigns end on Friday, October 28. On the same day, the final debate between the candidates for the Presidency of the Republic will be held on TV Globo. Jair Bolsonaro and Lula have both confirmed their participation. The election will take place on October 30. In terms of the economy, the Central Bank will meet to decide on the basic interest rate.
This week's Talking Points:
* Variables that may impact the election
The race between former President Lula (PT) and President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has been fierce in the last weeks of the campaign. Thus, the latest events, which may not be fully captured by the polls, have the potential to interfere with the mood of public opinion and, consequently, the outcome of the election. Among these are the traditional (evangelical) agenda, the judgment of the TSE regarding Lula's right to reply to the accusations of Bolsonaro's campaign, the arrest of former Deputy Roberto Jefferson and other trends and events.
* Lula on the defensive
In this final stretch of the runoff round, the candidates for the Presidency of the Republic are employing their most aggressive strategies. Without counting on the support from candidates for Congress, who are now elected or eliminated from the dispute, the campaigns are trying to keep their supporters active. In this, President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has taken the lead.
* The gubernatorial elections
The runoff round of the gubernatorial elections may bring some surprises. A study that we carried out based on the latest polls and analysis of the electoral scenario in the 12 states where there will be runoff gubernatorial elections points out that there may be a comeback in six states in which the candidate who was in second place in the first round ends up winning the election.
* A new round in the race for the House
The electoral process is always highly adjudicated, which causes some changes to occur after the election. However, as there is no deadline for the Electoral Court to judge the cases filed and as it is still possible to appeal to the Supreme Federal Court (STF), final decisions are usually late. In many cases, decisions are handed down toward the end of the terms in question.
* Women's importance in the race
One week before the runoff round, presidential campaigns are using two women's voices with great electoral potential. While the campaign of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has support from the First Lady, Michelle Bolsonaro, the PT campaign has gained Senator Simone Tebet (MDB) as one of its main protagonists. The image of the two women is being exploited by the respective candidates, with different biases, but with the same purpose: to increase their intended votes at the ballot boxes.
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