The future governing coalition and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 28 Nov 2022 by Murillo de Aragão and Cristiano Noronha

This will be a decisive week for the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). Lula is expected to start announcing the names of his ministerial team. On December 2, the Working Group created by Minister Gilmar Mendes to discuss the constitutionality of the ICMS reduction concludes its work. In the House, the bill on crypto assets may be put to a vote.

This week's Talking Points:

* The PP and Republicanos move away from Bolsonaro.
Last week, the PL and President Jair Bolsonaro were isolated after filing a lawsuit with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) questioning the result of the runoff round of the presidential elections. The President of the Court, Minister Alexandre de Moraes's decision was tough: he sentenced the PL, Republicanos, and PP (Bolsonaro's re-election campaign coalition) to pay a fine of almost R$23 million for litigation in bad faith. The appeal by the parties of this decision distanced the Republicanos and PP from Bolsonaro's party, which may even lead to a closer relationship between these parties and the future government.

* The races for President of the House and of the Senate.
A little over two months before the election for the presidencies of the House and the Senate, the race is moving towards different scenarios in each house. In the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL) seems to be the only candidate but in the Senate there may be a fierce race for the presidency.

* The future governing coalition.
The announcement of the 99 members of Congress who are part of the transition team gave a glimpse into the profile of the future governing coalition of the Lula government (PT) in the National Congress. However, the parties from the center will be crucial for the future government to obtain a majority in Congress, especially the PSD and MDB.

* The CPI against the TSE and the STF is unlikely to be approved.
President of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) Alexandre de Moraes's decision to fine the PL by almost R$ 23 million for litigation in bad faith in the case that questioned the result of the presidential election led to the submission of a request for a Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) in the House into the Electoral Court and the Supreme Federal Court (STF). However, the CPI request is unlikely to be approved because it is unlikely that the president of the House, Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), will authorize its installation.

* Main items on the agenda for December.
This will be the last month of activity in the legislative and judicial branches. According to the Constitution, the National Congress works until December 22. In the judiciary, the recess begins on December 20. There are two major priorities in the legislative branch before the recess: the Transition PEC and the Federal Budget for 2023.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register