Factors that may affect the elections and other weekly topics
Minister Rosa Weber assumes the presidency of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), replacing Luiz Fux. The Court also concludes the judgment on the national nursing salary floor.
This week's Talking Points:
Factors that may affect the elections
Three weeks before the first round of the elections, most polls continue to show a relatively stable scenario, with a slight reduction in the distance between former President Lula (PT) and President Jair Bolsonaro (PL). What could possibly change the current state of the polls, which indicates Lula's lead in the first round and his victory in the second round? At least four factors could affect intended votes before the first round. The first factor is the economy. Another factor that may affect the polls concerns possible mistakes that candidates may make up until election day.
A new phase of the race
The presidential race has entered a new phase, which will likely be marked by the intensification of conflicts between former President Lula (PT) and President Jair Bolsonaro (PL). The so-called "negative campaigns", previously restricted to social media, have been transferred to TV.
Electoral promises in the Budget
The 2023 Federal Budget bill brings some promises with popular appeal that are demanding for the public accounts but are quite interesting electorally for both candidates leading the presidential race. Despite the high level of revenue commitment that the future government will have to face, such measures are in the campaigns of former President Lula (PT) and President Jair Bolsonaro (PL). It should be noted that the next government will need to manage a primary deficit of R$ 63.7 billion next year.
The race in the Southeast
The Southeast comprises about 42% of the electorate, totaling more than 63 million voters, and will be decisive in the outcome of the race between former President Lula (PT) and President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) for the Planalto Palace. Considering that Lula is expected to win in the Northeast, while Bolsonaro is likely to win in the Midwest and South, the winner of the Southeast region will take an important step toward winning the election.
Female strategy in check
Even though he says he doesn't believe the polls that put him behind former President Lula (PT), President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) does not reject the data that exposes his greatest difficulty: obtaining women's votes. Women represent 53% of the electorate and, for the most part, they reject the candidate for re-election. Faced with the need to gain popularity among this group to guarantee his victory, Bolsonaro has made herculean efforts.
Options for the nursing salary floor.
The Supreme Federal Court (STF) began the judgment on whether to maintain the suspension of the nursing salary floor, as decided by Minister Luís Roberto Barroso in a precautionary measure. The decision aimed to allow time for the National Congress to reach a consensus and indicate a source of funding for the payment of salaries. For this, members of Congress should resort to a set of measures that need to be carefully calibrated in order to serve public and private health and philanthropic hospitals. We discuss some of these options in our report.
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