Budget forecast until 2036 published

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 04 Dec 2018 by Alex Teddy
On 21 November the Russian Ministry of Finance published a budget forecast that goes up to 2036. These forecasts are published every six years. It is a fascinating insight into Russia's economic thinking. Necessarily these have to be the optimistic side of realistic.The forecast notes that fluctuating oil prices remain the biggest wild card. A USD 10 drop in oil prices would reduce the tax take by 1.5% of GDP. That is over 8% of the federal income.Russia has become more budget efficient. It takes an oil price of USD 57.3 to maintain a balanced budget. The forecast identified other problems. Social security payments are too great - i.e. too many claimants. Income tax take is too low. It is said that there are far more self-employed people than are officially registered as self-employed. Tax evasion by these people that hits the state's coffers. On the other hand the VAT take is good.

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