Building plans amid the fog of war
The counteroffensive did not yield significant gains in terrain for two months, sparking discussions about the operation's lackluster progress. However, measuring the progress of the counteroffensive solely in terms of square kilometers of liberated land is not the right approach. The Russians have amassed substantial forces and reserves, and have constructed several lines of defense. Whenever a battalion is destroyed, they replace it with another from their reserves. It takes time to eliminate all Russian forces gathered to withstand the counteroffensive in the South.
The good news is that Ukrainian forces have mastered the art of outmaneuvering the Russians in artillery duels, consistently annihilating Russian artillery in the South with relatively minor losses. Multiple reports are circulating that Russian reserves are noticeably thinning, triggering numerous complaints from top Russian officers and military bloggers.
Meanwhile, in the two-month-long battle for the South, the Ukrainian General Staff has only deployed a minor part of the assembled assault brigades. In other words, despite the disappointingly slow pace of land recapture, Ukrainian forces have been impressively effective in inflicting losses on Russian forces in the South, while still preserving substantial forces to continue the operation and achieve success.
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