​CAATSA underway?

TURKEY - In Brief 04 Dec 2020 by Atilla Yesilada
The siege around Mr. Erdogan is tightening by the day.At home, he has to deal with a raging Covid-19 epidemic and rampant inflation which will require CBRT to hike rates once again, or Turkey facing another bout of currency instability. Abroad, EU may impose sanctions during 10-11 December end-year summit, but Yours Truly doubts it.Yesterday, Council of EuropeCommittee of Ministers demanded Turkey release Osman Kavala from prison immediately.I suppose non-compliance would mean excommunicating Turkey from membership, but this is a subject I need to investigate more thoroughly. On the other hand, after a week of confusion, I can confirm through Financial Times and DefenseNews.com that US Congress has attached a rider to Annual Defense Policy Bill mandating the president to impose CAATSA sanctions on Turkey for the purchase of S-400s. Since CAATSA ought to be familiar to our audience, I skip the background.I really don’t know whether Trump would approve the bill, because according to Financial Times, there are at least two other articles concerning social media networks and the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan which he threatened to veto before. I can only say that he would not veto it on account of Turkey, because dropping such a hot cake on Biden’s lap fits with his overall strategy of causing as much trouble for his successor as possible. I screened the Turkish press, but as of 11:30 am Istanbul time, there was no official comment from Erdogan administration. I believe Trump approving the bill is a good case scenario for Turkey, because POTUS would probably select the least painful sanctions from the CAATSA menu for his old friend Erdogan. It is speculative to ...

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