Politics: Campaign 2021 results forecast – Part One

MEXICO - Report 25 May 2021 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

With less than two weeks to go before Mexico’s June 6 mid-term elections, Morena’s initial commanding lead nationwide appears to be slipping, according to several public opinion polls. All the surveys concur –albeit with discrepancies normal in the world of public opinion polls that often use different statistical methodologies– that President López Obrador’s Morena party and its coalition partners will be the largest bloc in the Chamber of Deputies. But while it probably will win a majority of the seats, it will not retain the qualified majority needed to automatically approve changes to the Constitution.

Morena is poised to win gubernatorial races in Baja California, Colima, Guerrero, Nayarit, and probably Sinaloa, but will likely lose in Southern Baja California, Campeche, Chihuahua, Nuevo León, and Querétaro. A few months ago the ruling party appeared to be ahead in 13 of the 15 states where governors are being elected.

There are several reasons behind this turn of events. On a more general level, there is a broad rejection of AMLO’s policies in fields such as public security and the economy. But more importantly, there is concern that the president’s policies and his style of governing represent a step backward in terms of democratic functioning. Such policies include the elimination or weakening of the autonomous government bodies, the subjugation of the legislative branch to the presidency, and the attempt to control the judiciary and the electoral institutions.

This has pushed the three largest opposition parties – PRI, PAN, and PRD – to form an electoral coalition and field common candidates in most races. Thus, Morena now must confront and beat not each party separately, but a common candidate fielded by the three. This was not the case in the past.

The immediate goal of the PRI-PAN-PRD coalition is to deprive AMLO of the votes he needs to undertake his Fourth Transformation, which is conceived as a major overhaul of Mexican laws and government spanning both the current and future presidential administrations. The stakes on June 6 are indeed high for Mexico.

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