​Can Azerbaijan-Armenia clashes drag Turkey in?

TURKEY - In Brief 29 Sep 2020 by Atilla Yesilada

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The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over occupied Nagorno-Karabagh district (NK, map below) is one of those frozen conflicts like Kashmir, Indo-China border dispute and Cyprus.While experts in Turkish press craft horror stories of Turkish military facing Russian troops in Armenia, I see no possibility of that. However since the currency and other TL markets have been heavily attacked by investors, I felt the need to express my views on the recent clashes. Since the 1994 Armenia-led occupation of NG, which is Azeri territory, but had a mixed Armenian-Azeri population, successive Azerbaijani presidents had attempted to liberate it.Over the years, despite Russian military aid and remittances from Diaspora, Armenia fell way behind in per capita GDP vs Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan used a substantial portion of its oil and (now) gas revenues to rebuild and modernize its Armed Forces. Turkey has been not only been a supplier of hardware, but also advisors, strategy, training and according to global press Syrian jihadi fighters (a charge vehemently denied by Ankara) in the current round. Yet, even without Turkish aid, Baku would have attacked Armenian forces and NK militia, as part of its salami strategy. This amounts to using every opportunity to push back into occupied NK, only to stop when Russia bares its teeth, or Armenian resistance costs too many lives. This time I expect a very prolonged military campaign, not only because Turkey is sending Syrian mercenaries and armed drones, which had proven very effective in Idlib and Libya, but also for two additional reasons: First, my understanding of the Russian-Armenia relationship is that the current pro-West PM Pashinian is...