Castillo’s last dance; real GDP slows to 1.5% in H2; BCRP projected to end hiking cycle at 7.5%

PERU - Report 18 Oct 2022 by Alfredo Thorne

In this report, we focus on three key topics. First, we discuss the implications for President Pedro Castillo of the decision by the Ministerio Público Fiscalía de la Nación to submit to Congress a constitutional complaint against Castillo for “leading a criminal organization.” Second, we argue that the economy entered a patch of soft growth in H2 2022, and estimate that real GDP growth averaged 1.5% oya in this period. We maintain unchanged our real GDP growth forecast of 2.5% for 2022, and 2.2% for 2023. Finally, we reassess the Central Bank’s end-of-cycle policy rate, and explain why we have revised up our forecast to 7.5% from 7%.

On October 11th, Attorney General Patricia Benavides submitted to Congress a constitutional complaint against Castillo for allegedly leading a criminal organization; for influence peddling; and for collusion in the cases of the awarding of public works concessions and contracts with the state oil firm, Petroperú. These accusations also extend to Transport and Communications Minister Juan Silva and former Housing and Utilities Minister Geiner Alvarado. The MPFN’s hypothesis (developed with the assistance of several protected witnesses), is that, by granting public works concessions to specific firms, and by filling key positions in these ministries and in Petroperú with compliant individuals, Castillo established a network with the intention of embezzling public funds.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This report is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This report is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this report or its contents.