Politics: The challenge of Central American caravans
The Central American caravans of recent weeks have had much more of a political impact than past efforts by migrants in the region to collectively enter and in many cases cross Mexican territory, especially given the way US President Donald Trump made it his focus ahead of last week’s midterm elections. And while anti-immigration politicians and activists have spun many, largely baseless, theories as to who organized the caravans, there can be no doubt that the thousands of people making their way north are fleeing structural political and security crises throughout Central America’s Northern Triangle region.
The overwhelming response to the initial call for the first of these human convoys reflects the protection they can afford in the face of insecurity prevailing in transit zones into and within Mexico, given the extent to which smaller contingents of asylum seekers are subjected to criminal violence and exploited by human traffickers. Although Mexican federal police initially tried to halt the first caravan from entering the country, officials have since opted to offer the migrants temporary visas if they agree to remain in southern Mexico, and to facilitate the movement of those heading further north – but only up to a point, as officials have worked behind the scenes to restrict their access to transportation.
Mexico finds itself in a bind in trying to avoid a crack down on the migrants while also doing as little as possible to encourage thousands more Central Americans from undertaking the trek north, potentially stoking anti immigrant sentiment in Mexico and major confrontations with the US government. So far the incoming government of President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador has responded with best wishes but few concrete ideas. His future interior minister has spoken of totally redesigning Mexico’s migratory policy, opening the door to as many as one million Central Americans in the next six years, and assisting the caravans to cross Mexican territory. But such an approach could easily backfire politically, potentially produce an immigration crisis inside Mexico (especially along its northern border), and stoke the ire of the White House.
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